Why McCain could well be the next Pres....

It saddens me deeply to write this.  But I have had a vision of the future and it is indeed frightening.  Others have echoed this both on the blogs and in the corporate media, but increasingly I sense the vision materializing, much as I did when I saw Reagan gaining traction in 1980.  Follow me below the jump for my thinking.

A fried of mine living in London said to me recently:

I have a feeling this whole election is going to have unpleasant surprises.  As someone told me the other day, this is a time when Rs are on the losing end and Ds should have an easy victory.  So, the Ds put forward the two most un-electable candidates as their front runners.  As much as I think B O is the most qualified of the two Ds and one R, and would like to see him in office, I have a feeling when its voting time, people's racism and phobias will overcome rationalism.  

The fact that Hillary has fanned the flames of racial animus and handed McCain the ammunition for the GE has not helped.  She truly has lived up to the characterization of her as willing to do anything to win.

And while I have my own reservations about where Obama is coming from on economic issues and how much of a leader he actually is vs how much a creature of hype, I think he would make a far better President than McSame.  

Make no mistake about it, McSame would be a disaster in so many ways...  Like Nero after Caligula.  And yet, the corporate world will rally around him.  The Bushites who will never acknowledge the wreckage they have created will rally around him.  And the folks who could not stomach Billary again or a black President ever will rally around him.  How many of these last are there in reality?  That is the question.

I still think back to how things were in 1999 and 2000, and I just can't believe how we have gone so very wrong since then.  And I watch Billary and Barack bleed each other and I can see the growing probability that we will fail again to capitalize on a historic opportunity.

And believe me, things can get worse. Much worse.  More war, more economic dislocation, more unraveling of our social compact that is the basis of a stable polity.  I sure hope all this is just a function of sleep deprivation and that I will be back to being chipper and upbeat tomorrow.

•  Just as a note...

  So, the Ds put forward the two most un-electable candidates as their front runners.

  Um, go tell your friend he's an asshat...if the others were so damn electable, they'd still be in the race...

  by Aqualad08 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 08:51:17 AM PDT

  •  Two words

    George McGovern.

    Being defeated in the primary doesn't mean you're not more electable.

    by nrafter530 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 08:59:08 AM PDT

    •  Seriously, who was more electable than McGovern?

      In 1972? Humphrey? Muskie? Scoop Jackson?

      by Aqualad08 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 02:59:42 PM PDT

  •  How about: Go tell your friend he's Robert Novak

    who said basically the same thing last year.  I'd provide a link, but I'd have to swill through a Novak Google and I'm not up for that today.

    by ksh01 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:06:52 AM PDT

    •  One of Novak's most interesting

      observations in the last 20 years IMHO.

      It would be nice to see that he got it worng.

      however--I don't think he anticipated the 50-50 split in the primary and the resulting bleeding that going on right now.   He thought she'd clean up and Obama would be a footnote.

      by Salo on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:09:25 AM PDT

      •  Yep...I'll have to find a link

        so I can refer back to it in tears or laughter.  I think I'll be laughing, but I can't guarantee anything.

        Wasn't the quote something like "Oh those idiot democrats, for the first time in years they have a solid chance of winning the White House and what do they do?  The nominate either a woman or a black man.  Har, Har."

        I think that's the gist of it.

        What a rollercoaster year.  I think we have to refer to the weird feeling that 4 weeks equals a year as "primary years" like dog years.

        by ksh01 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:21:06 AM PDT

        •  yup

          it's almost prophetic, but for different reasons than the one's Novak was thinking of.

          I had no idea that we'd get the

          sexist v racist accusations and see everyone did in their heels like this.

          by Salo on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:25:14 AM PDT

  •  In in my inbox

    From redstate (I signed up while ago), just so we know:

    Barack claims that he would have left the church in 2007 if Wright had not stepped down as an "active" pastor. (Note that he is still "senior" pastor and all sermons in the churrch bulletin are still copyright to Wright)

    Of course in 2006, Barack gave his largest donation to the church ever, $22,500. That's 22,500 demonstrations of his support for the message and work of Rev. Wright when Barack would have us believe that he was struggling with Wright's words and leadership.

    Of course, recall that when the Wright story broke Barack hadn't heard about these sermons. They didn't happen when he was there.

    Let me offer another theory: we are watching a politician lie. Politicially, it is a convenient lie, because he is lying about his state of mind, something that it is very hard to disprove or corroborate.

    This is the same kind of lie that Barack Obama told about his position on Israel. He used to support a radical liberal position on Israel, like the position taught be Rev. Wright. But then, in 2003 he pivots and suddenly becomes a fan of Israel. Why? When politicians change their position a year before an election, the most obvious theory is usually the correct one. They are, or were, lying.

    On Israel and on Wright, Obam

    a's stories don't work.  And that is not the sort of change we can believe in.

    by david mizner on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:41:54 AM PDT

    •  When you have to use Redstate for your

      source, you may want to think about what you are doing more.

      by rick on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 10:20:08 AM PDT

•  Yeah...

  ...and pigs will fly out of my ass.  John McPain can't win, and here is why:  The "Media" loves to build people up just to tear them down, and despite all the love and good barbeque, they will tear him down, just like South Carolina 2000...

  by Ken in MN on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 08:51:36 AM PDT

  •  I have a slightlyu different take.

    The media is shot through with defense dollars and military influence.   GE/MIC (whatever you wnat to call it) might not really want to withdraw from Iraq and risk having a column of retreating troops get shot to pieces.

    Although i'd bet they'd LOVE to pin such an event on the Donkeys.

    by Salo on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:12:19 AM PDT

  •  The media absolutely loves McCain and they

    fawn all over him constantly.   Bush defeated McCain because he went outside of the traditional media to absolutely destroy him in South Carolina.  

    You Tube, playing the refs via letters to the editor, robocalls, direct mail, and good old fashioned door-to-door campaigning is what's needed to tear McCain down.  Otherwise, he will be the next POTUS.  

    by LionelEHutz on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:22:16 AM PDT

•  Um

  Lose the rightwing slur. Her name is Hillary.

  by LaEscapee on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 08:53:40 AM PDT

•  McSame Will Be The Next POTUS

  if God personally makes it happen.

  America will overwhelmingly choose Obama over McSame in November.

  by Mr X on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 08:58:20 AM PDT

•  although you might not have liked...

  ...what I've had to say about Obama in recent months, he's probably the best shot we have to dismember McCain over the war.

  He's never supported it. People who oppose the war will vote for Obama , and even a few war supporters will respect him enough for being consistently anti war.

  I'd like to see the anti war position stated in a debate.

  But Obama had some massive flaws obviously.

  by Salo on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:02:35 AM PDT

•  Thanks for your concern

  it's interesting to me that no one who voices this he's unelectable because of race or Wright ever mentions the Democratic turnout in the primaries.

  Because racism in America means you vote for a candidate in the primaries and decide you don't like in November because he's Black??????

  I guess that's one way of never having to say you're sorry.

  And as for Wright, he'll be canceled out by Hagee and Parsley.

  But again, thanks for your concern.

  by ksh01 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:02:43 AM PDT

•  Put down the fear

  Just walk away from it. Then take a deep breath and start working to get Obama elected.

  You can do that.

  What's going on some other person's head, can't do so much about that. The results so far suggest that he'll do just fine in the General.

  by The Raven on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:03:14 AM PDT

•  If McCain becomes POTUS,...

  ...it would be because of HRC's attempts to make Obama toxic to voters, thereby paving the way (as she likely sees it) for her to run in 2012 when the then incumbent is too old to run again.  Electability has nothing to do with it.  Obama has already shown that he can prevail.

  by boran2 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:03:17 AM PDT

  •  and nothing to do

    with the GOP making Obama toxic to voters...all Hillary's fault.

    by nrafter530 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:06:32 AM PDT

    •  HRC is paving the way.

      The GOP will have little research to do.

      by boran2 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:07:45 AM PDT

      •  As if

        they haven't been doing opposition research on this guy since like 2004?

        The GOP is ready to smash both of them to pieces...they've been ready. Hillary is taking away their October surprises.

        by nrafter530 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:13:08 AM PDT

        •  So HRC is actually doing Obama a favor.

          Got it.

          by boran2 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:16:57 AM PDT

          •  that's my opinion

            I've long warned her supporters have serious problems with Obama and they've gone ignored...now polls are showing it and he could fix it. Someone more unpopular that he is can't hurt him with the voters he needs to win...unless he has a problem among Democrats, which is a problem Hillary didn't create.

            by nrafter530 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:24:52 AM PDT

      •  The GOP already did the research.

        If you think they haven't been doing this for months on end then you really have no clue.  

        The DNC had better have been doing research on all of the Republican field though or else we're up a creek without a paddle.    I hope whatever was gathered on McCain in 2000 wasn't put into the circular file.  

        by LionelEHutz on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:24:53 AM PDT

        •  The point...

          ...is that HRC is essentially providing assistance to the GOP.  I have no problem with Obama being attacked hard on the issues but HRC has gone well beyond that.  Yes, I'm sure that the GOP started long ago.  

          by boran2 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:50:08 AM PDT

•  How many times must one type the same thing...

  Sigh. oh, now with vibrato for effect.

  THE ELECTION IS SEVEN (7!) MONTHS AWAY!!!

  Think back 7 months, what was the political discourse? The political death of John McCain and the inevitability of Clinton. And you can pretend to sit here, now, and claim any level of accuracy on what is going to happen over the next 210+ days?

  Forgive me, but I think you are full of it.

  by edgeways on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:04:03 AM PDT

  •  I never entirely bought his demise.

    I thought he was being hidden away from the public....by the media.

    by Salo on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:05:24 AM PDT

•  Defeatism is not helpful

  All it does is empower our opponents.  Republicans are already portraying Democrats as surrender monkeys.  And this sort of hand-wringing only proves them right.

  by winsock on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:04:51 AM PDT

  •  McCain can point

    to examples of military history --like Elphy Bey or Xenophon or Napoleon's retreat from Moscow to dismantle any talk of withdrawing from Iraq.

    An Army is most vulnerable when it retreats.

    by Salo on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:07:18 AM PDT

•  I have some of the same fears,

  but here's what I hope:

  1.  Obama will run a positive campaign.

  2.  Obama will blow McCain out of the water in debates.

  3.  McCain's base is WAY more fractured and disgruntled than the Dem party.  Most of them just don't like their guy.

  4.  The media is already telling itself that it is way too friendly to McCain.  They'll embarrass themselves into looking closely at McCain.

  5.  And when they look closely, McCain will have flip-flop written all over him.  He's had to do this to pander to the Rep base.

  6.  The Demo party is fired up.  We'll get over the primary funk and have a sense of energy and enthusiasm that will be contagious for the rest of the country.

  7.  McCain's age.

  8.  There are tons of new Demo voters that we've never seen before.  People will be voting during this election cycle that have not voted in years, or have never voted.  The AA and the youth vote will swing states that have never been swung before.

  I hope.

  by briefer on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:10:00 AM PDT

  •  I want to see McCain in the high 30s

    and Obama in the mid 50s before I start hoping for that.

    by Salo on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:13:45 AM PDT

  •  Problems and observations

    Obama will run a positive campaign.

    Can't argue with that. McCain will too and leave the vicious attacks to the 527's, which will have to be tied to him.

    Obama will blow McCain out of the water in debates.

    Definitely, this may be his strongest points

    McCain's base is WAY more fractured and disgruntled than the Dem party.  Most of them just don't like their guy.

    Don't talk to Hillary supporters...many of them just HATE Barack Obama...always have. It may blow over, it may not.

    The media is already telling itself that it is way too friendly to McCain.  They'll embarrass themselves into looking closely at McCain.

    But how far will it look?

    And when they look closely, McCain will have flip-flop written all over him.  He's had to do this to pander to the Rep base.

    As long as we point that out.

    The Demo party is fired up.  We'll get over the primary funk and have a sense of energy and enthusiasm that will be contagious for the rest of the country.

    This is a problem for me, because I've noticed a lot of people who were excited in January just getting tired, losing faith and fading away. I've had a few friends of mine who were excited about Obama early and have grown to dislike Obama...and most of the Hillary supporters I know are going to need us to grovel and beg before they vote for Obama. Maybe it's different here, I've been told it is.

    McCain's age.

    As long as it doesn't make him look like the old wise man vs. the pompous kid.

    There are tons of new Demo voters that we've never seen before.  People will be voting during this election cycle that have not voted in years, or have never voted.  The AA and the youth vote will swing states that have never been swung before.

    Again, as ong as we don't lose them.

    by nrafter530 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:20:38 AM PDT

  •  What I am seeing, however, is that #6 is ...

    ...starting to come unglued. Somehow, some way, we've got to overcome the primary funk. Getting there from where we are now won't be easy.

    by Meteor Blades on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:21:39 AM PDT

    •  Thanks MB

      I was struggling with my decision to not vote for hillary if she were our nominee.  You took the time to stop and chat, but one question remained unanswered.  How to handle Hillary's unprecedented use of race baiting, sexism and terrorism/anti-muslim card, which you acknowledged was different in nature and scope than any other dem candidate.

      So, I posted a diary, and one commenter said hey, voting for hillary is not actually voting for hillary, but voting for the dems. It was both a light bulb moment and a duh moment. Yikes, I have voted for lots of dems I did not like.

      Anyhow, I have changed my mind and will vote for hillary if she is our nominee bc it will be a vote for dems, not her. And if she wins, I will support her when I agree and raise my voice when I don't.  

      I went back and read your comments in our chat, and yikes, I think this is what you were saying, but I was just dense. Anyhow, appreciate your help.

      Oh, another lightbulb. One possible way to reach others who struggle like I did. When I heard people (not you) say, oh, the dems will come together after primary, I rolled my eyes bc , as you and I both seemed to agree, the nature and scope of my dislike for Hillary was based on unprecedented dem "tactics" against another dem. So, how can post-primary be treated same as other years?

      I think it would be great if some patient, understanding, well-informed person posted a story on fp about these issues, asking those who think they might vote for Mcbush to state specifically why in a donut free comments.  Once you know a specific reason, then you can chat, and maybe we have some more duh moments!  Maybe some of them are having an issue with the nature of dislike for Clinton or obama and just need to be reminded that while intense, dislike is dislike and we have voted in the past for dems we disliked so that we could further best interests of party in general.  Just a thought.

      by Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 10:25:21 AM PDT

•  What's with all the concern trolling lately?

  Seriously...this has to be about the 20th diary posted in the last 5 days lamenting Obama's loss at the hands of America's latent racism.

  The fact is, that the majority of states don't have a huge black population.

  Folks in "nearly-white" states like Iowa, Idaho, Wyoming, etc. voted for Obama in overwhelming numbers.  Like...it wasn't even close.

  If there's some sort of huge latent racism in this country, it's sure not being shown in the primaries.

  I don't understand what we gain by concern trolling this issue over and over again.

  by DemocraticOz on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:13:46 AM PDT

  •  Believe me, there is huge latent ...

    ...racism in this country. Not everybody is a Democrat, and, sadly, a few Democrats I know are racist.

    My concern is not that racism by itself will down Obama, but that some percentage of diehard Clinton backers will not show up at the polls (or will actually carry out their threats to vote for McCain). 2% or 3% could make all the difference. With Michigan and Florida already big problems, this could tip the election to McCain.

    by Meteor Blades on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:19:49 AM PDT

    •  You certainly hope...

      that Democratic primary voters would be POSITIVELY interested in a good Black or Female candidate.

      Of course that is a different pool of voters from the general election.  The whole thing hinges on a sliver of voters in the middle who are prepared to vote either Dem or Rep.

      by Salo on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:22:53 AM PDT

    •  The media's fawning all over McCain makes him

      seem sane enough to voters, even some democrats, that they don't automatically write him off as a right wing kook (despite the fact that he is) and I think that, unless McCain's so-called 'moderate' and 'straight-talk' image is punctured, it might give the people who are latent racists (or he-man-woman hater's club members) an excuse to vote for McCain over Obama (or Clinton).  

      by LionelEHutz on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:33:10 AM PDT

  •  It's not racism per

    se that Obama will need to overcome, or not just racism per se, but the claim that will be made by the GOP, using Jerermiah Wright, that he's out of the cultural mainstream, the same charge, with variations, that defeated Dukakis (the ACLU, death penalty opponent), Gore (the elitist know-it-all), and Kerry (the stiff, Brahmin francophile). With Obama, it will be the exotic, un-American America-hater.

    Obama, with his political skills and comfort talking about his Christianity, will defy this claim to some degree, but it will be hard for him to win, no question. I still think that, on balance, he has a better chance than Hillary of beating McCain, and the good news is, McCain will be running on a pro-war, pro-recession platform.

    Fear not, people. But by all means think.

    by david mizner on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:38:21 AM PDT

•  The two most unelectable candidates?

  Bring out record breaking number of voters to the polls.

  So something does not add up.... unless your prejudice underneath.

  by B P Pgh on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:22:05 AM PDT

•  Troll Diary n/t

  by JeffW on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:29:15 AM PDT

•  Stop with the cynical views!!!

  People get so easily depressed and discouraged these days.  Has Barack Obama not taught us anything?

  McCain has no freaking chance.  Sure, there will be petty racist voters.  But a freaking 4 year old could tell you just by looking at these two candidates who would make a better President.  I think it is more likely that McCain gets crushed in the GE than he wins.  This is not 00' or 04'.  This is 08', people are ready for a change.

  Stop with the hard cynicism already

  by Insiteful on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:34:26 AM PDT

  •  in your eyes

    It's ironic you said "a 4 year old" because a family member, a Republican, said "a 4 year old can see McCain is a better President than these two"

    I think we're going to have plenty of times in this campaign where we're going to be looking at polls and scratching our heads and wondering "wtf are they thinking?"

    by nrafter530 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:44:33 AM PDT

•  Recommendation .

  Take off the tinfoil hat and don't bet on the White Soxs .

  by ArtfromMI on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:45:32 AM PDT

•  i have a friend in zimbabwe who insists

  that mccain will pass away while singing karaoke in sedona, thereby allowing mike huckabee to storm to victory in november

  my friend has never been wrong so i'm bummin'

  by memofromturner on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 09:56:33 AM PDT

•  Panic early!

  You don't want to have wait until the last minute.

  Otherwise here's the usual advice: Get some sleep. Eat some comfort food. Go for a long walk. Take a short vacation. Then go do something useful. Ask yourself if you can do anything to avoid your nightmare scenario. If you can't think of anything you yourself can do aside from going around screaming that the sky is falling, then have the serenity to leave it to others who are out there working hard to prevent exactly what you describe from happening.

  by Whitefish on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 10:20:35 AM PDT